Hindsight Bias
Why You should keep a diary?
In retrospect, everything seems clear and inevitable
We can aptly describe it as the “I told you so” phenomenon
The hindsight bias is one of the most prevailing fallacies of all.
So why the hindsight bias so perilous? Well, it makes us believe we are better predictors than we actually are, causing us to be arrogant about our knowledge and consequently to take too much risk.
Overcoming the hindsight bias is not easy. Studies have shown that people who are aware of it fall for it just as much as everyone else.
Keep a journal. Write down your predictions Then from time to time, compare your notes with actual developments. You will be amazed at what a poor forecaster you are. Dont’ forget to read history too.
Hindsight may provide temporary comfort to those overwhelmed by complexity, but as for providing deeper revelations about how the world works. you’ll benefit by looking elsewhere.