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The Art of Thinking Clearly

  • Table of Contents

    • Introduction
    • Survivorship Bias
    • Swimmer's Body Illusion
    • Clustering Illusion
    • Social Proof
    • Sunk Cost Fallacy
    • Reciprocity
    • Confirmation Bias
    • Confirmation Bias (Part 2)
    • Authority Bias
    • Contrast Effect
    • Availabiity Bias
    • It'll-Get-Worse-Before-It-Gets-Better Fallacy
    • Story Bias
    • Hindsight Bias
    • Overconfidence effect
    • Chauffeur Knowledge
    • Illusion of Control
    • Incentive Super-Response Tendency
    • Regression to Mean
    • Outcome Bias
    • The Paradox of Choice
    • Liking Bias
    • Endowment Effect
    • Coincidence
    • Groupthink
    • Neglect of Probability
    • Scarcity Error
    • Base-Rate Neglect
    • Gambler's Fallacy
    • The Anchor
    • Induction
    • Loss Aversion
    • Social Loafing
    • Exponential Growth
    • Winner's Curse
    • Fundamental Attribution Error
    • False Causality
    • Halo Effect
    • Alternative Paths
    • Forecast Illusion
    • Conjunction Fallacy
    • Framing
    • Action Bias
    • Omission Bias
    • Self-Serving Bias
    • Hedonic Treadmill
    • Self-selection Bias
    • Association Bias
    • Beginners's Luck
    • Cognitive Dissonance
    • Hyperbolic Discounting
    • Because Justification
    • Decision Fatigue
    • Contagion Bias
    • The Problem with Averages
    • Crowding
    • Twaddle Tendency
    • Will Rogers Phenomenon
    • Information Bias
    • Effort Justification
    • The Law of Small Numbers
    • Expectations
    • Simple Logic
    • Forer Effect
    • Volunteer's Folly
    • Affect Heuristic
    • Introspection Illusion
    • Inability to Close Doors
    • Neomania
    • Sleeper effect
    • Alternative Blindness
    • Social Comparison Bias
    • Primacy and Recency Effects
    • Not-Invented-Here Syndrome
    • The Black Swan
    • Domain Dependence
    • False Consensus Effect
    • Falsification of History
    • In-group Out-group bias
    • Ambiguity Aversion
    • Default Effect
    • Fear of Regret
    • Salience Effect
    • House-Money Effect
    • Procrastination
    • Envy
    • Personification
    • Illusion of Attention
    • Strategic Misrepresentation
    • Overthinking
    • Planning Fallacy
    • Deformation Professionelle Fallacy
    • Zeignark Effect
    • Illusion of Skill
    • Feature-positive effect
    • Cherry Picking
    • Fallacy of the single cause
    • Intention to treat errors
    • News Illusion

Base-Rate Neglect

On this page

  • Overview
  • When you hear hoofbeats, Don’t expect a Zebra
  • See also

When you hear hoofbeats, Don’t expect a Zebra

Hoof

See also

On this page

  • Overview
  • When you hear hoofbeats, Don’t expect a Zebra
  • See also